Canaries in the mine?

It is time to get all of my receipts together for tax time. Yes, it is the first week of February, and yes, I am that anal. Digging behind my drawers looking for the T4 from the third of four companies I worked for last year, I came across some forgotten press items that I had kept from May 2008 and exactly one year later. It’s amazing what you can learn from donning those hindsight glasses:

May 2008 – “Real GDP figures in the US understate the pain that home owners are feeling from a collapsing housing market. Their net worth is deteriorating and unemployment is climbing. Strong exports are masking the their domestic weakness. GDP aside: “ Basically every indicator you can hake a stick at is screaming recession”

This was closely followed by: “ Eastman Kodak Co. said yesterday that it was raising prices by an average of 20% because of soaring prices of energy and raw materials.” Wow, did you really think that this was the best time to do it? On the other hand:

“In Stockton, California ..three out of four homes for sale are in or on the path to foreclosure” Hmm…Did Eastman Kodak know that?. Chief Executive of Lowe’s Co’s Inc., yesterday said population growth and the aging of America’s more than 130 million existing homes provides a favourable long-term outlook for the home improvement industry.”. Especially when it’s in foreclosure, and you have taken your parents in, in the spare bedroom.

From 2009, one year later to the month, a stock broker mused: What if the Fed’s safety net is about to be pulled like a rug from under the economy, because the Fed wants to be sure that (stock) traders start   minding their risks? What happens to stock manipulation, Speculation, and downright investment start to pull back? Who’s going to kick start the economy, then? So not only is a Socialist style capitalist rescue OK, but there may be a wrong time to put Capitalism into first gear! Amazing. Oh, and look…

“U.S Home sales continue freefall”. Isn’t this what was forecast a year ago, when homeowners were spending all of their spare cash at Lowe’s and deciding whether to put Mom into a care home to rent out the spare room in order to afford the mortgage?

And, finally – Banking: “ING Direct has made massive inroads into the domestic banking market by nor offering branches, and running with less than 1,000 employees world wide – many of them in low paying, entry positions. A the end of March 2009, it had $23.6 Billion in assets, up from $2.8 billion eight years earlier.”

No more homes, existing homes worth less, everyone spending their spar time making improvements to their own houses, because there is nothing to move up to, Kodak going bust because it thought that people would spend more for an ageing technology, and all of our banking secrets have to be talked about over the phone to someone in Pakistan, because your high street bank is run by the same guys that tax you. This is the future, people. Look at these headlines NOW , not one or two years in arrears, and do your taxes in February, before they run out of money before paying you, your refund.

Today, I read that China’s Economy is a Bubble! Oh, Sh*t!

Netizens: Freedom, or…….

While applauding Google’s decision not to compromise its beliefs in order to simply gather more eyeballs in China, the subject of cyberspace freedom is, once again, being discussed. The Search Engine behemoth isn’t making any money in China, so it’s not as if this proud stance will cost them anything, but it makes the right decision to do this and state that “Do no Evil” is more than a motto. Most companies would take the position that more eyes mean higher rates for Ad Words so on behalf of all of us, Thanks ‘Googs’. When contrasted with the US financial institutions, the company is certainly making a case that it’s ideals are worth more than it’s share price; a ray of sunshine in the gloom of corporate America. But does the existence of an unpoliced Internet as a whole in our lives mean now what it used to?

The Chinese government may well have been spying on G-Mail account holders, but is it the only Government doing so? It’ a knee-jerk reaction to look at this as a case of a Communist regime, once again taking people’s freedoms away, but if you don’t think that most Governments are doing this, you are dreaming. If your own ruling political party’s secret service were watching you, do you feel any freer where you live than in Beijing? The fact that the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, made such a public fuss about Google’s decision may sound like freedom loving America bitch-slapping it’s Eastern foe, but we all know that all US citizens are being spied on.

The freedom to read and write what you want across a borderless global system comes at a cost: Hacker’s, Viruses, Spam, and predatory individuals are something that we put up with in order to chat with someone in a far flung corner about the mundane seconds of our own lives. If you believe that the ‘net is home to evil doers that don’t need to communicate in public, then what does that say about your feelings concerning the outbreak of laptops in coffee shops? Are those people that you don’t really want to talk to really Twittering on about what they just bought, or do you believe that their conversations a re more nefarious?

If you don’t trust anyone enough to talk to them in public, then you get the Internet you deserve. It’s easier to have numerous instantaneous pen pals across the globe than to open up about yourself to a real live person, but what does that say about the generation now in their teens, and what are they opening themselves up for in the future? There may be an argument for some kind of expanded control if the entire planetary communication is now online. We have always measured our species’ advances in technological terms, but we may have created something here that will enslave us. If this is true, the decision to keep one tiny part of the globe out of the conversation because someone may be listening may do more harm than good.

Haiti: THIS is what we can do

The frightening images from Haiti over the last 36 hours may appear to be just the latest in a never ending episodes of Mother Nature’s Revenge against a species that has pushed it’s luck once too often. As a firm believer in my species’ part in recent and rapidly expanding climate change problems, I, too, am as likely as the next person to simply take in this information, throw up may hands, and thank God that it wasn’t me, this time. This time, however, may prove to be a turning point, thanks to the area that has been devastated: A turning point in the way that Human’s can change an area for the positive.

In past disaster’s, the emphasis has been on Government’s getting face time on TV to pledge support, the rapid deployment of initial emergency response to immediately save lives, and then the almost expected negative press some months later on promises being reneged on, and people still starving when the mighty battleships go home. Can we ‘turn the tide’ this time? Thanks to Haiti’s geography (I.e. In the West), can we do something long term in this instance to raise the future as well as the immediate present of this financial basket case?

In these situations, the first item to be addressed has to be the immediate. Already, only 36 hours after the earthquake hit, emergency response is on the way from the U.S, Canada, and the U.N. The immediate concern is for those that are saveable, the badly injured, and the young that will have the chance to be nursed back to health. Then comes the care of those not as badly hit, and those that made it through and are able to assist in the recovery. A few years ago, in the Thai Tsunami, the vast majority of aid ended here, because (let’s be honest), it’s Asia, so outside of those minority pockets of Asians in our community, who cared? But here is an area on our doorstep. Although the Haitian ex-pats in the West may be small in number, this toilet of a place has lasted in their current position of corrupt government, and lawless neighbourhoods for decades, and we all felt that we couldn’t do anything about that, because it is Sovereign Territory. Their lives may be screwed, but a sit is their land, we cannot do anything about it. Well President ‘DubYa’ changes the rules in Iraq, so let’s do it again. We can force a better life onto a people, apparently, for whatever reason we think fit, and the thousands of impoverished and ill Haitians reaching North American shores for asylum in the near future has to be looked upon as a threat to our social security welfare. Let’s change it.

Yes, the short-term targets remain the same, but let’s stay and get some long term goals met, too. Lets move the capital to the other side of the bay more than 15 Kilometres from the epicentre of this earthquake. Let’s build structures that can withstand the next one (when was the last one?). Let’s put people to work using their own talents to show them that a life can be lived just as fully and rewarding on their own island. Let’s re-vamp the electoral system, after all there isn’t one to speak of at the moment, and hasn’t been for years. The online community has proved that they can receive and send messages even though there isn’t an infrastructure left, so let’s begin industries aimed at making this Island paradise – and it could be – into a member of the global networked community, and make oit pay for the populace. Let’s take the dead, incinerate them all, build a monument to them and get in with a new and better life. One that allows these people to realise their own destinies, and stop them trying to be part of a Ice Hockey playing nation’s.

Looked at in this way, this disaster could be a golden opportunity to rebuild an entire country: One that is on our doorstep and deserves more from the ultra-rich than the lip service it has received for the past half century or so. Or – put another way – let’s do the right thing for a change.

Inside the Olympics: A Load of Rubbish

Amongst the triple Salkow’s, sub 3-minute skated miles, and bulls eyes scored from prone positions (Skiing and shooting? Who thought of that?), there are, of course, the mundane everyday chores that still have to be done. Think of rubbish clean up, carting and disposal. Not only are we being flooded by competitors, the Olympic family big-wigs, and tourists, we are getting in more food and beverage items, and the cups, plates, and cutlery required to sink them. The work entailed in clean up is testing at most times, but imagine what it will be like, when you can only do this under the cover of darkness, in mid-winter, under a strict security blanket.

The regular Joe’s that run companies like these are the ones that are taking on extra help during this special month, and to quote an old English phrase: “Where there’s Muck, there’s brass.”

For anyone that has ever travelled up here, you will remember that the city of Vancouver and the alpine venues at Whistler are about 2 hours away along the Sea to Sky Highway. About half way up this road is the town of Squamish, the home of the only landfill around these parts. That First Nation name, by the way, translates as “The Place of Big Winds” as if garbage collectors will feel a little too comfortable. The logistics of getting in and out of this place, along that road, in these conditions are a nightmare, of course, especially when you consider the numbers involved:

Regular Whistler population is under 10,00. The amount of warm bodies expected for February and March is 55,000. The amount of garbage expected is about 1,200 Tonnes. That’s going to be a mean feat for the capacity of garbage trucks – 28 tonnes when full. How would you like to be driving a full truck down an icy road in a whiteout, while being overtaken by drunken Lexus drivers, and tour busses full of rowdy Austrian ski fans?

The stated goals of VANOC concerning sustainability and legacy, together with a green a delivery of the spectacle as possible seem to be at odds with the reality of what is going on. Indeed the promises of Games-created jobs also appear to a little rosier that what will take place also. While companies contracted to perform such unseen housekeeping tasks as these are definitely there, they aren’t sustainable in any way. Many small companies will simply suck it up and work extra hard during the two weeks of the main Games calendar, to avoid taking on any short-term staff.

All in all, however, even though us residents were sold a bill of goods with this event resulting in higher taxes for many years to come and there is no promise of future tourism or corporate investment directly attributable to the Games, the fact that everything is ready to go well in advance, there has been infrastructure spending to ready ourselves for this, and we have appeared to dodge the financial meltdown bullet, it is no longer miraculous of the Games come off. VANOC have done a great job readying ourselves for the World, and we may well get some future visitors and new corporate residents because of the Games. Well done to them, as well as to the garbage collectors.

History’s longest Olympic torch run continues, with the only negative press coming from demonstrations in Toronto two weeks ago. News of this, however, was swamped by the appearance of an 81 year old Canadian athlete taking the flame into a full Parliament to a standing ovation from our elected representatives. The Tour has now been to the most Northern, Eastern, Western and Southern parts of the country, and is on its way back to the Pacific Coast. A fantastically inclusive event, it is a daily reminder of the scale of what’s to come. You can follow the last 48 days of it, here http://www.vancouver2010.com/more-2010-information/olympic-torch-relay/olympic-torch-relay-interactive-map/

 and we hope you join us for the Games in February and March 2010.

Inside the Olympics: The Undesired Activity

In a recent post, I wrote about the amount of ‘boot-licking’ a host city has to do in order to continually keep the IOC on its side. From the original bid document, through to the tearful farewell and wrap-up in Spring 2010, this city has been hosed, charged, and demanded-to from these officials to the point where we are now unsure of who actually this month-long (don’t forget the Special Olympics) festival. O.K., it is the largest one of it’s kind on the planet and, if they intend to make money from it in the future, any host city should be ready to invest. However, when items dictated to by the organisers start to cross certain lines, is it not up to the city to hold up a hand and argue it’s corner? Two cases in point raised in the last month argue this.

Every Olympic host city also presents a Cultural Olympiad for the arts that shows the best of your city, country, and extends a hand to other Olympic country travelling exhibits and troupes. Imagine being a winter sports fan, and taking a week out of your life to go to a welcoming town in a different part of the World, see the World’s best athletes compete in your favourite sports, then spend the evenings taking in fabulous artistic and cultural artists. If I had the odd hundred grand sitting around, I’d do it! Well, in a recent guideline handed down, it appears that these artists must contract to perform without making negative comments or the like concerning Olympic sponsors and the IOC! For dancers and opera singers, this may be OK, but perhaps not for you if you are a comic, painter, or actor. These people see a different view of things as a perfect point worth bringing up, but if someone gets excited and ad lib something along these lines  in February or March 2010, their performance can be immediately stopped.

In a related issue, no negatives are allowed to be ‘presented in written form’ in public view. While designed to stop negative graffiti and posters in camera view of the globe’s TV viewers, this has been extended to the interior of businesses and residences! This means that if I have a “No to Visa” sentiment in an upstairs window of my house, a representative from my local city council (I live in a host suburb.), has the right to enter my house and take it down.

Now, in both of the above cases, we would have to be in an extreme situation for punitive measures, I understand this, but haven’t the IOC been told that this country has a Charter of Rights and Freedoms that guarantee free speech, and personal property rights? The IOC that aren’t putting these rules in place to protect itself – they are designed to keep negatives away from their sponsors. The largest global corporations on earth have the ability to order this, through the organisers. A soft drink company has the right to complain to an IOC rep, who will tell the local organiser, who will pass onto an elected local official to do the dirty.

I see the day when these games will only take place in totalitarian states – they may be used to taking orders blindly. How did Norway, Japan, and the US ever stand for this?

More on the torch relay to come – I have received a few enquiries about it – unless someone has a problem with that, and will block my internet link. Blogging may become an ‘undesired activity’ in Olympic cities.

Futuring the Royal Family

Whenever the media try to stir up anti-Royal feeling, I suffer the usual knock on consequence of having to answer for the existence of The Windsor’s. Just for the record, I look at the British Royal Family as I do about Christmas:

It is traditional, has nothing to do with me except gets me a day off, it creates some business, and makes us look at ourselves in a different way.

 

A recent state visit by The Prince of Wales and The Duchess of Cornwall had the usual negative media spin that proved the entire edifice of the Royals was crumbling, and no one could save it. Considering this point, I was surprised by the sheer amount of bytes and print inches, the visit caused. It was obviously the biggest story of the entire 10-day time period they spent in Canada! Ten days, of ‘nothing to see here’, and ‘no-one cares’, all shot in front of crowds of people, and breathless reporting about the importance of the stay.

 

So, just for the record, here is my take on the present and future of the Monarchy.

 

Prince Charles has had a massive effect on pop culture over the lat 50 years. No-one hugged a tree, saved a whale, or thought green before him, then had the balls to announce it to a World calling him nuts for doing so. He does a far better job where he is, rather than being the Monarch, when he has seen his Mother button her lip for her entire life. He should abdicate the throne when the Monarch dies, and pass it to a younger person with more in common with a modern world – a criticism frequently levelled at the institution.

The Princes’ heroes through out his life have always been the quieter, more influential ‘powers behind the throne’ such as Lord Mountbatten, so he can support his sons while he is slipping into a dotage. Let’s be honest, he has had his life, he has finally got his love next to him, who needs the hassle? He could be 80 before he gets the job, anyway.

 

The first order of business for King William should be to thin out the Civil List that is the line of royals supported by the British taxpayer. Earlier in the Century, we all had larger families, and there is an incredible amount of hanger’s on from Elizabeth’s cousins, etc. Once they pass on, lets ask their kids to get careers – most of them do anyway. This should result in large properties becoming free. Let’s put them to a social use that will benefit as many people as possible. Both ‘heir and spare’ have a job to do promoting Britain. They will both have spouses, and offspring, but there shouldn’t be any more people doing this important job.

 

This should make them ‘relevant’ to the majority of us, cost less, and modernise the institution with no hard feelings, or hardship to anyone. See, I am a royal supporter, but even I see that believing in them as they are is a little like believing in Father Christmas. We have already modernised the annual gift giving festival, let’s move on to another ancient tradition.

The Olympics: Inside the Inner Circle

If you are looking for the perfect job, or a change of career, you could do a lot worse than joining the Olympic movement as a member of the board. Not only are you responsible for promoting amateur athletic sport both in your country, and around the globe (a very worthy endeavour), you will also live the life of a Banana Republic potentate by everyone you meet on the planet, with the possible exception of your wife. When you also consider many athletes are no longer amateur, but millionaires from their day jobs, you don’t even have to be very successful at your main purpose, either. It’s one of the easiest jobs on the planet – especially when you consider you are paid one of the best salaries in history, and are on expenses. But why are you treated the way you are?

 

Ever since the politic debacle’s of the early ‘80’s, when politics dictated an amateur athlete’s career arc, consider the size of the venues that have hosted the games. On the winter games side, Calgary, Lillehammer, and Nagano, and Atlanta and Athens in the summer months weren’t’ exactly global metropolises. After Moscow and Los Angeles, it looked as if a leaner, more stripped down games would soothe the diplomatic wounds we were all suffering from, and also get back to basics for the quadrennial celebration. Unfortunately, it also opened the experience of actually ‘getting’ the games up to local governments. In many cases these meant the very first time that the venue in question were going to be the focus of the world. So anything spent at the time to sway people’s minds, would be repaid exponentially in future tourism and investment cash. Therefore whatever these cities could do ‘above the table’ the better. Unfortunately, as is usual with human nature, these lessons were well learned by future venues, expanded, and therefore expected by the inner circle of a few thousand that make up the Games’ secretariat.

 

For this Olympiad, we have been shocked as host cities what we have to do when this Star Chamber gets here. First class travel, complimentary tickets to final events, penthouse hotel rooms, changes of traffic patterns in their favour, and member’s individual choice of meals during official Olympic events are not only expected, they are demanded – a necessary part of the host’s responsibilities. This is all for the handful of decision makers, and their support staff, and secretaries, their whole families, and members from their own countries. All in all, about 2% of all expenditure expected to be made by us proles on the sidelines is given away in order to make these people feel at home. Unfortunately, Vancouver is the largest city ever to host the winter games, so we are now using a different set of rules – and we have to do this by trying to make money from a much larger visitor number than those smaller towns. At what point is it our job to maximize profits? I guess it greasing palms after your product is bought, trumps any support the Olympic movement owes us for soldiering on through a huge global economic explosion to continue to present their product, and make less money from it. While paying more for it after these members of the sporting royal family have left for pastures and troughs anew.

The Olympics from the inside: 100 days to go

At the time of this writing, we are only 100 days away from the Opening ceremonies, and here are a few headlines from the last few weeks to show how we are doing.

The Olympic Village debacle: The construction of venues required was finished very early in the process. Thank God! With the recession hitting us last year, we weren’t trapped in the situation of having to complete at the last minute the way that Athens appeared to. While we are using a lot of existing venues (Look for changes at the hockey tourneys.), there was a fair bit of building to complete and we apparently did all of this under budget and early. The only sore point was one of the two Olympic villages built in the downtown core (The second one is in Whistler itself). This was always going to be a large project – imagine a small town centre being built on downtown soil – but thanks to the collapse of world-wide economies, it got very nasty. The builder ran out of money, the debt sold to secure financing suddenly couldn’t be serviced, and the hedge fund looking after it went insolvent. Of course, the tax payer is going to have to pick up the built, because the payments outstanding on the site match the annual budget of the entire council, or something just as alarming.

As of today, it is unfinished, but work continues apace, and it is to handed to the Organising Committee today. The apartments were going to be sold to individuals after the games anyway, so at least the City will reap the benefits of that, but not as much as originally planned. Also planned was a plan to earmark a percentage of the apartments as low income housing. While it is a tough pill to swallow, I believe we shouldn’t be doing that, now. We should get as much money back as we can from this ‘investment’. Financially, we are still in good shape, and very high-end purchases, such as ticket packs, and travel plans, are picking up. I think the hundreds of residents that thought they could earn a vacation by renting out their homes for the games are going to be disappointed, though.

THE TORCH RELAY: The Olympic torch touched down last week, and has started on it’s cross country tour. WAY too much First Nation involvement for many people’s liking, especially as it was held back by native people’s protests (see last blog), the first evening it travelled, but definitely a sense of pride about the country, and a sudden alert that we are only a few weeks away from the puck drop to this thing.

SECURITY: It was announced today that 90% of Security personnel have been hired. Now the fears start that these were mostly recruited from Craigslist, and may be ‘the bottom of the barrel’ as far as employers go! It must be nice to feel you are respected as you work for almost nothing in the coldest time of the year, pissing people off, and NOT enjoying the once-in-a-lifetime experience that you are guarding!
Considering the U.S. has spent millions securing their border, and the overall security bill is $1 Billion, it’s a pity we couldn’t be more positive about the front line folks we hire.

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The Olympics: Mixed Media Messages

So who is against this global event convening in their back yard? Well, don’t expect a cogent answer from the media. In our City there are two major groups that continually upbraid the populace for supporting The Games. One is native-rights group that state that the land the games are being contested on is stolen, and belongs to them. Given that a second’s thought? Good – let’s move on. The second one is an Anti-Poverty group that protests on a regular basis that…..well, I didn’t know really. The fact that poverty in the city is bad, I suppose – or perhaps that there is poverty in the World. It’s something like that. While there has always been some ‘rhubarb’ from the back of the room that this exercise will cost a lot of money, it is these two groups that are always heard from when any announcement is made from the organising committee. “We have finished our building one year ahead of schedule.” Comes the clarion cry from VANOC HQ, closely followed by either: “Oh yeah? Well the entire process is being held on land that us First Nations’ land.” or “That is an unbelievable amount of money being spent, considering that there is poverty…somewhere.” Perhaps these negative comments have to be listened to, to be balanced in your reception of all messages, but there haven’t really been anymore. I would have thought that once these groups have been heard from once or twice, that would be all we needed to know about their existence, but No. Every time we get a Pres Release from the organising committee, there is a competing one from one of these two groups. My main problem with this is that the usual shit-storm stirring that the Press feels it must do while, at the same time, proudly boasting that they are “The Official TV/Radio/Newspaper/Blog of the Olympics. We aren’t children. We know that the Olympics are going to get a lot of press, and you want to be a major part of it. We KNOW! So while you are busting a gut to get the five rings connected to your corporate logo in front of us courtesy of your ability to get into our houses, do you really have the right to drag these burbling hand puppets out in front of us every single time to advertise yourself to us? The mixed message here is that the media are desperate to have you watch, read, or listen about this massive event on their channel, they can’t help showing that the very act of hosting this behemoth of PR causes angst in the hearts of about 0.25% of the populace – well, thanks a lot. Here is a story for you. The Olympic medal design was unveiled last week. Made mainly of cast off, junked computer parts harvested by those no doubt under the poverty line, they were made (and covered in Gold Silver and Bronze, I hasten to add), by the Canadian Mint – which is out of province. No poverty or First Nation issues there, I think, but a story you probably won’t get anywhere lese, because it doesn’t have the tension that the media require to report on.

The Olympics: Follow the Money

When I mentioned last week that $2 Billion was going to be the final price tag, those that preferred the figure $8 Billion as the final cost immediately harangued me.

Why two prices, and why is one 4 times bigger than the first? The reason is infrastructure prices, and how it is being spent.

 

When your city hosts the Olympics, it’s going to be too small to handle the influx of so many people, and you won’t have the facilities to handle it. This doesn’t necessarily mean sporting venues, either. In our case, it means roads, rapid transit, and a conference centre. ROADS: We have a tiny road system that doesn’t even have dedicated right hand turns at most downtown junctions, because the land is so expensive, we cannot dedicate space to anything but buildings. Of course this has led to too many cars downtown, not enough parking, and a crappy public transit system by comparison.

The journey from Vancouver to Whistler is a fantastic 3 hour drive along Howe Sound and up into the Mountains to Whistler. Unfortunately, three hours is just too long to spend on the road these days, so people speed and get killed making it a dangerous trip.

RAPID TRANSIT: Like most North American cities, we don’t have a direct transit route from our airport to the city – because cab companies ‘rule’ that area of transport with an iron fist. Unfortunately, we also have to cross at least two bridges across water to get to anywhere downtown, which adds huge traffic problems to the usual crawl. Our mid week rush hours are now 6am to 8pm, with a slow hour between 2 and 3 – which is when most International flights arrive.

CONFERENCE CENTRE: Once you get downtown, the ability of the city to fill hotel rooms with the size of our current Conference centre is, sadly, too small to make enough money. We have a fabulous design for one (that would be built into the water to save on infrastructure.), but can’t afford to build it – pity, because if it had a large-scale launch event for it, it would have an incredible impact on would be visitors.

 

What? Like the Olympics? Canada has always been a popular Olympic destination, we are on the US West coast time zone, Whistler was designed as an Olympic venue in the 60’s, and is the best ski resort in North America – why not?

 

Six years after we got the bid, we have a rail rapid transit link directly to the city from the airport, the highway to Whistler is flatter, wider, and has cut the journey time down to two hours, and we have our Conference centre that will be the 21^st century looking home to the media centre. Together with the $1 Billion security costs that weren’t envisioned prior to September 2001, there is your additional $6 Billion. Worth it? Worth it for the Canadian tax payer to pay for it? Well, from this city’s point of view – YES!