Say Goodbye tothe Suburbs.

Have you noticed that we are in the middle of another almighty shift in human movement? We all learned in school about the Industrial Revolution, and how it forced the end of the Agrarian way of life for Millions in the West. You got the vision of millions of people being herded in never ending bedraggled columns toward the ‘dark, satanic mills’ of the soot-covered cities. The City where I was born was like that. Prior to the 1850’s, it was a few canal locks on top of a hill whose only claim to fame was that the valleys to its west used to be a country hunting estate for Henry VIII.

Of course, once factories started to require freight, canals became the preferred method of transportation, and this small town became a city in a matter of months, apparently.Growing up, I knew I lived in an automobile manufacturing city close to Europe’s largest Freeway exchange, with a large ‘green belt’ around it, just a few miles outside the suburbs where my family moved to – an actual 20 minute bus ride from downtown, how exotic!

These days I live in a city that has shrugged off it’s Lumber past for the most part, and has become part of what the more modern thinkers amongst us describe as a global cyber-network, more attached to a city down the coast in a different country than it is to it’s own nation’s capital. Among the most exciting real estate developments in recent years has been the transformation of a run down warehouse district (A relic of the port city we always were, but that has now moved to a more easily managed part of town), into a hip, young, cyber-entrepreneur type of clichéd downtown ghetto: Restaurants and bars that are way too expensive for what they sell, a Starbucks every ninety feet – that kind of thing.

This major shift in the migration habits of the current generation is due to the Internet. Now, kids are learning how to navigate spaces much bigger than the direct world they will graduate into. They are then using this knowledge to run their own businesses from a laptop and a cell phone, so they don’t need space to make money. With post-boom generations becoming smaller, there is no pressure to marry and have their own children, so the entire edifice of satellite cities, bedroom communities and the daily commute will be over in the next decade. Our current view of 2-up, 2-down semis in the suburbs will be the same as we now look at 4 story, 5 bedroom, and 4 bath Victorian mansions. OK for some, but way over the needs of most of us. As oil prices go up, and the automobile becomes too expensive to run, what will happen to the suburbs?

Of course, if they become too expensive to run by their city councils, eventually they will be swallowed up by their nearest cities – the very ones that birthed them in the 70’s. Whole neighbourhoods will be bulldozed to cut down on costs, and to save them from criminal activity. Eventually, they will be returned to farmland to promote local produce manufacture in the new, warmer climate.

In other words, the entire suburb culture in the 2040’s, could well look very much like it did in the 1950’s: A One-Century experiment in growth for one generation that was shown to work, but with many flaws that greed alone couldn’t answer.

What is your Nationality worth ?

I can be minutes away from writing a blog, and still have no idea what it’s going to be about – then Serendipity runs you down like a truck, and it’s obvious. I wanted to comment on a piece that told of how many Canadians were buying US real estate, what with the sudden swing in financial fortunes within the two countries now leading to a point where the great mortgage bubble burst will lead to more US houses being owned by ‘foreigners’, and what that is going to do to the remainder of the economy. Then came Lord Black of Crossharbour.

Now that Conrad Black may have found the legal loophole to escape US justice, it appears that he wants to come back to Canada – a strange decision, considering that he gave up his Canadian citizenship in order to get his ‘gong’ from the Queen. As a British passport holder that has been living here for over 20 years, I say: “Screw Him”. We weren’t good enough then, we shouldn’t be good enough, now (One reason that I have never given up my British passport – I may have to crawl back with my tail between my legs someday). Of course, he is also a convicted felon, so our laws don’t allow him to visit – even if it is just to sell his Toronto mansion, in order to pick up a short-sale foreclosed deal in Phoenix!

But, then I began questioning what is a passport, anyway? In the modern world, where we are all connected in some way to the rest of the planet, does it really matter anymore? Here are some weird facts and the usual personal conclusions.

Three Million Canadians now live outside the country. In fact Canadians make up 10% of Hong Kong’s population. 40% of Canadians donate to charities based outside the country, and in survey after survey, Canadians rate global issues as the most important to them: Global Warming, and International Social Justice, and 20% send money overseas monthly for their elderly relatives. Does this mean that we have become a ‘flag of convenience’ for all and sundry? Perhaps we are the most forward thinking country. We embrace World travel and a global education through experience. We know that we are no longer off the leash from our families elsewhere in the World with the Internet and cell phones giving us no excuse not to keep in touch.

Of course the major difference between us and other countries is the fact that we are part of the mosaic, not the melting pot. Canada wants us to remain both who we were, and who we are – or vice versa. If immigrants move here for escape, they soon settle down, have children and stay. Even if their children move away when they are older, Mom and Dad usually remain here instead of going back to the old country. Perhaps the argument that Immigrants are welcome both here, and in other countries makes us part of who we are: Unless, of course, you decide to give up your citizenship. That should be irreversible – So long Conrad, and thanks for the newspapers.

South of the Border Blues

Reading about the fare loony right of the US Republican party recently, of which there is about 1,000 in the entire country, it appears, I was reminded of a conversation I had a few years back with an American citizen on a plane. During this he questioned the Canadian Health Care system, the only time he ever compared the two countries, stating that he couldn’t believe that we would pay taxes for” Someone else to use.” Being relatively new to North America at the time, and being interested enough in politics to gather a lot of US political information I thought that everyone South of the border thought this way. Today’s ‘tea-partiers’ not only reminded me of that conversation, but also of the fittingness of revolutionary dress when glaringly contrasted with a modern day US chain hotel’s surroundings – as if a time traveller has been beamed to the local Hilton. I now realise that not only is this point of view isn’t shared by everyone, but also what kind of hell we have wrought by trying to make our politics as bland as we can.

 These Republicans are, after all, only trying to regain the political ideals they always felt were there own, and health care is the touchstone in their argument. – it has always been one of the few differences between Democrats and Republicans – that is used by both parties as a barometer  of the state of the nation, an Atomic Clock pointing toward doomsday. If the two parties hadn’t tried so hard to please the middle ground voter, and compromised their more homely (read extreme) supporter, we wouldn’t be bored to tears by these guys, and their own Operatic Brunhilde, Sarah Palin, today. Remember that these guys were around during the Bush administration, getting just as much airtime as they are now.

 Amazingly to me, though, is the eye of the hurricane in the US health care debate, the illegal immigrant. I recently had the same discussion with a Canadian on this subject and the thought that there are people desperate to change everything about themselves and uproot their lives and come to a new country, just to claim welfare cash, I find ridiculous. The true case here, is why are illegal immigrants employed, because if they weren’t, they wouldn’t come. Why are there jobs for them that people, living here just won’t so? Why do these jobs still exist? Remember if you are paying an illegal immigrant, you are part of the problem, as the Tea Partier’s say. What is the real cost, if you don’t concentrate on anchor babies? According to the Kennedy School of the Government Council on Foreign Relations, here’s the skinny as of January 2009:

If all working illegals were gone from the US, the economy would lose $1.8 Trillion.

Average working weekly pay would rise by $25 for high school drop outs.

Average annual working incomes as a result of immigration would drop by $1,200.

The US GDP would drop by 0,07%.

There, now. That wasn’t that tough, was it? Now all we have to deal with is the fact that the rest of the World have realised that mass immigration is a reality, and the US cannot go it alone on this issue and, of course, the big question: Why do these musket wielding, tri-corn wearing boobs get as much TV face time as they do?

Told you so: Immigrants v Productivity

A couple of posts ago, I discussed what I believe is a huge, and damaging disparity in the Western world – one of our making, short term beliefs, and political ambitions. It is the hiding of money away from the vast majority of workers by business, Government, and administrative branch hierarchy. This ensures that as the World finds it easier and faster to make a buck, that dollar isn’t being shared around, and hasn’t been for over a quarter of a Century.

Thinking back o my youth, I remember what a debilitating downturn in the economy can do, and had to suffer the embarrassment of my First world, Western Nation begging the IMF Bank Manager for a loan.

As this has happened for the first time since the 70’s, this time to Iceland, we are going to hear the same reasons over and over again. Basically, this is the last chance of the current political regime to make good on this disaster, and a much more business-friendly administration is poised to take over. At that point, the people themselves will get the blame. What used to be the ‘British Disease’ of no work being attempted for months, and protracted all-out industrial action at the drop of a hat, was always the root cause of everything. Basically: “Times were good once, Mr. working man, when you didn’t have the ‘rights’ you have now. As soon as you get these benefits, you use them and it bankrupts the nation.”

I can see that things haven’t changed, except that we have used the last 30 years of expansion to simply download those problems onto a cheaper workforce – Immigrants. These have been allowed into our country because of their talents, then haven’t been allowed to use those talents = basically, they have become a slave class, and we now blame them for a lack of productivity among our manufacturing and industrial base.

If you listen to certain sections of business, you will be told over and over again that we are not producing enough. The reason for this is always the ‘shop floor’, not the ‘upstairs office’, and always hampers everyone’s capacity for expansion, and real money making. As we all start to age, and take early employment (OK, not everyone), this lack of far-sighted economic system is beginning to show glaringly what we are doing to ourselves.

Of course Productivity is at the heart of income growth, and it is true that that there are more emerging countries that can do more with less than we can, but by ensuring that the best available labour is not matched by the best available position, we only have ourselves to blame. The healthier and wealthier everyone’s community is, the more productive it can be. Surely this is not a vast oversimplification, it is a basic building block of economics. The more opportunity everyone has to receive and retain a position, the better off we all will be. Sadly, between 20 and 34% of all immigrants that have settled over here for more than 10 years live below the poverty line. While cultural differences, language barriers and foreign credentials are problems to be solved, by blaming these solely is racism at it worse. Why would you invite someone into your house, then not allow him to take his shoes off?

We need less taxation, not obvious cuts to those that spend the most (or earn it), and a transfer of money to areas that require infrastructure and are generally slow growth. Target specific areas of the world where immigrants are welcome, to do the jobs that they can do, add to our knowledge pool, and not just give them the jobs that no-one else wants. The longer we wait, the more likely it is that these talented individuals will give up on us, face the uncertainty of life in their own country, and grow that place’s productivity solution. Watch as these countries overtake our stagnating economies, just be case we thing that we are so clever, we don’t need anyone.

As if to re-infoirce my thought processes, a recent report has shown that while productivity in North America has grown by over 30% since 1980, salaries for most of us have only risen 10%. There is  a price to pay for even better productivity, but we already have the answers. I hope that President Obama has the nerve to look for long-term solutions for everyone, not just the usual suspects.